Tough times for Monero

Since the bull run a few months ago, Monero has fallen on hard times. The Trump administration claims to be pro-crypto, but privacy coins have been under attack in recent weeks. Some see this as proof that the original intent of cryptocurrency, to be a peer-to-peer asset outside of the traditional financial system and government regulations, has been lost.

This week, Qubic, a layer-1 blockchain, claimed to have achieved over 51% control of Monero’s hashrate, sparking debate about whether this constituted a successful 51% attack. Qubic’s mining pool reportedly reached up to 52–53% of Monero’s hashrate, with some estimates as high as 65%, enabling a six-block chain reorganization that discarded around 60 blocks. This was framed by Qubic as a demonstration of its "Useful Proof of Work" (UPoW) model, which redirected mining power to Monero while funding Qubic token buybacks and burns. The move caused an 8–16% drop in Monero’s price (XMR), while Qubic’s token rose 4%. Kraken halted Monero deposits due to security concerns.

However, Monero developers and some experts, like SeraiDEX’s Luke Parker, disputed the claim, arguing the reorganization could result from luck rather than a definitive attack. SlowMist’s Yu Xian and Ledger’s Charles Guillemet supported the attack’s success, noting Qubic’s potential to rewrite the blockchain, double-spend, or censor transactions, though at a high cost (estimated $75M/day). The Monero community rallied behind pools like supportxmr.com, which held 28.7% of the hashrate, to counter Qubic’s dominance. Qubic’s strategy involved economic incentives, attracting miners with richer payouts, but its motives and long-term economic benefits remain debated. The incident highlights vulnerabilities in proof-of-work blockchains with concentrated mining power.

Earlier this month, TradeOgre, a KYC-free cryptocurrency exchange that accepted Monero deposits and withdrawals, went offline and has remained down, causing significant concern among users. The outage, initially reported as a Cloudflare 522 error, has sparked various theories about its cause, with no official communication from TradeOgre’s operators. Here are the key points:

• Theories and Speculation:

  • Exit Scam: Some users suspect an exit scam due to the prolonged silence and lack of updates, though no evidence shows funds being moved, which typically accompanies such scams.

  • Law Enforcement Action: Speculation exists that TradeOgre’s lax Anti-Money Laundering (AML) policies may have attracted law enforcement scrutiny, potentially leading to a site seizure. However, the absence of a law enforcement notice on the site weakens this theory.

  • Technical Issues: Some attribute the outage to server maintenance or a DDoS attack, as the site was reportedly slow and glitchy before going offline. A Cloudflare issue was initially suspected but later ruled out as a TradeOgre-specific problem.

This all comes as Exodus, one of the most used hot wallets, announced it will end support for Monero (XMR) tomorrow, on August 18, 2025, citing the need to streamline product offerings to align with its future strategy. The official statement indicates that the current XMR experience no longer meets Exodus's standards for usability and reliability. Additionally, the decision comes amidst increasing regulatory scrutiny on privacy-focused cryptocurrencies like Monero, with exchanges such as Binance and Kraken delisting XMR in certain regions due to compliance requirements. This regulatory pressure likely influenced Exodus’s choice, as maintaining support for a privacy coin could pose legal or operational challenges. User backlash on platforms like X highlights frustration, with some viewing the move as undermining privacy and user autonomy. Exodus advises users to transfer XMR to compatible wallets, such as Cake Wallet, or swap it for other assets before the deadline.